Aviation growth crashes to 2.88% as airfares soar
Aviation Sector Growth Crashes to 2.88% in Q3 2025 as Airfares Soar
Growth in Nigeria’s aviation sector slumped sharply to 2.88 per cent in the third quarter of 2025, even as passengers across the country continue to battle with skyrocketing airfares, according to the latest figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), www.cjsoftflix.com reports.
The NBS Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for Q3 2025 revealed that the nominal year-on-year growth rate of air transport plunged from 30.60 per cent in Q2 and 57.21 per cent in Q1 to just 2.88 per cent by the end of the third quarter.
Output Rises Despite Sharp Growth Decline
Interestingly, despite the sharp slowdown in growth, the value of output in the aviation sector still increased. Air transport GDP at current basic prices rose from N78.71bn in Q3 2024 to N80.98bn in Q3 2025.
Earlier in the year, the sector recorded even stronger nominal values:
- Q1 2025: N105.77bn (up from N67.28bn in Q1 2024)
- Q2 2025: N37.35bn (up from N28.59bn in Q2 2024)
However, quarter-on-quarter figures highlight how volatile the industry has been throughout 2025. The sector’s output dropped by about 64.7 per cent between Q1 and Q2, before rebounding strongly by 116.8 per cent between Q2 and Q3.
Why Growth Still Collapsed
Despite the rebound in output, the year-on-year growth rate continued to fall because it is measured against the same periods in 2024. As a result, growth declined steadily from 57.21 per cent in Q1 to 30.60 per cent in Q2 and finally 2.88 per cent in Q3.
Aviation’s Small Share of the Economy
The NBS data also showed that air transport remains a very small contributor to Nigeria’s total GDP. In Q3 2025, the sector accounted for just 0.07 per cent of total GDP, slightly lower than the 0.08 per cent recorded in Q3 2024.
By comparison, aviation contributed 0.11 per cent in Q1 2025 and 0.04 per cent in Q2 2025, reflecting continued instability within the sector.
Meanwhile, the broader economy continued to expand. GDP at current basic prices rose from N96.16tn in Q3 2024 to N113.59tn in Q3 2025.
Real GDP Shows Modest Recovery
Real GDP figures suggest the aviation industry has moved from deep contraction to modest expansion. Throughout 2024, air transport recorded negative growth:
- Q1 2024: –9.51%
- Q2 2024: –11.18%
- Q3 2024: –9.90%
In 2025, the sector returned to positive territory:
- Q1 2025: –0.81%
- Q2 2025: 6.34%
- Q3 2025: 1.60%
These figures show that while aviation has recovered from contraction, momentum has weakened significantly by Q3 2025.
High Airfares Trigger Senate Intervention
The slowdown comes amid widespread anger over soaring domestic airfares. In response, the Senate recently summoned the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, alongside major industry stakeholders, for an emergency interface.
The move followed a motion sponsored by Senator Buhari Abdulfatai, who warned that the surge in ticket prices could severely disrupt national mobility during the festive season.
Reports indicate that one-way tickets on some domestic routes—especially to the South-South and South-East—have jumped by as much as 200 per cent, with fares exceeding N300,000. Before the Yuletide rush, similar tickets averaged around N120,000.
Further checks revealed that some Abuja–Lagos one-way tickets now cost between N400,000 and N600,000, prices many Nigerians say are no longer affordable amid inflation and rising living costs.
Outlook for the Aviation Industry
Overall, the NBS data paints a picture of an aviation sector that enjoyed strong growth at the start of 2025 but has since lost momentum, even as passengers face unprecedented fare hikes. How long the industry can sustain growth under these pressures remains an open question.
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